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Post subject: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:31 am
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We were talking about this yesterday between friends.

I was watching Antiques Roadshow and they were showing guitars from 2003. For each item, they showed the evaluated price in 2003 and updated price for 2018. The majority of items went down in value significantly.

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:24 pm
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If you are talking about newer built guitars (2003?). It would take a long time for those to gain value in their own rite. I believe that with things like what Fender did with the American Vintage series and others doing period appropriate models made in their original country of origin, players have found less reason to buy and play a vintage guitar as compared to before (especially if your goal is to play it). Add to that the amps that are being made to meet the specs of before (look at things like Victoria and the revamped Supro as well as the Fender line) and there is less reason to go out and find a desired old guitar amp and guitar if you can just find the reissues (which capture the spirit of those things really well now). This would cause the market to go down on such things.


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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:43 pm
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backbreakerjr wrote:
If you are talking about newer built guitars (2003?). It would take a long time for those to gain value in their own rite. I believe that with things like what Fender did with the American Vintage series and others doing period appropriate models made in their original country of origin, players have found less reason to buy and play a vintage guitar as compared to before (especially if your goal is to play it). Add to that the amps that are being made to meet the specs of before (look at things like Victoria and the revamped Supro as well as the Fender line) and there is less reason to go out and find a desired old guitar amp and guitar if you can just find the reissues (which capture the spirit of those things really well now). This would cause the market to go down on such things.



I've seen a LOT of vintage stuff, guitars and amps, that were just old, nothing great about them.

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:01 pm
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in a word, no.

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:11 pm
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I always turn to the coin market when confronted with guitars/amps/cars/etc. to determine a value. Numbers produced will always equal rarity, condition will always be just that and originality is the standard.
Unless we're speaking strictly of special release items; I don't think a stock original Fender will double in value if it were produced in the modern age(post CBS buyout) of the company until it is 50+ years old. Unless you apply some price to value equivalent conversion equation, which imho is utter nonsense.

There are collectors out there that hope with every breath that the market is drying out somewhat. Although there are probably still some attic/basement/closet finds to be had, they are surely rarer today than yesterday and will remain even rarer tomorrow.
Like any market there will always be valleys and troughs, diamonds and dogs.

With the CS open and running full blast making whatever is desired; for a price, will likely sway some vintage buyers out of the market. When I think about it, a nice used custom shop guitar would be more attractive than a stock vintage Fender from the 70/80/90's. That part of it is what it is; build quality-condition, feel, tone and looks being my top criteria.

All this is of course completely irrelevant if you happen to pick up a guitar regardless of its age that simply plays itself in your hands.

As long as there are vintage guitars/amps/coins/cars/etc. there will be a vintage market.


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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:46 pm
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Great topic, Mike.

backbreakerjr wrote:
. . . Add to that the amps that are being made to meet the specs of before (look at things like Victoria and the revamped Supro as well as the Fender line) and there is less reason to go out and find a desired old guitar amp and guitar if you can just find the reissues (which capture the spirit of those things really well now). This would cause the market to go down on such things.
I think you pretty much nailed it backbreakerjr. That original gear does have a charm for sure. ‘Twas a time when you could grab a gem before the public and even some pros had the wherewithall to evaluate that old amp in the garage or guitar in the attic. Not only are they being found. but the good ones are being advertised and gobbled up often taking them out of the picture with the leftovers returning to market at higher prices.

I’ll take a mint ‘55/‘56/‘57 Chevie (and other classic) any day. However, depending on the vintage condition and price a new repro would do me fine.

For those not from the Happy Days it is likely the old vibes do not interest the new kid on the block, or the burnt veteran, and a new repro or alternative might grab more attention. If you are dealing you might consider filling the lot with a sure thing depending on your location and buyers.

I think guitars and amps are the same. What makes mojo today will be tomorrow’s gem methinks.

———————————————

September 15, Winnipeg is having a “Manitoba Guitar Traders Show” where everything guitar will be up for buying or selling in a bazaar like setting in a local ANAF club. You can bring up to two guitar related items or rent a table for $20. Entry is by charity donation.

Should be interesting, and I’m sure vintage will appear while we step over a lot of pedals. :P
FSB

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:42 pm
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Deleted, misunderstood

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Last edited by CB91710 on Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:47 pm
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I think most of you are misunderstanding -- Antiques Roadshow were showing re-runs from 2003 except at the end they would add what the 2018 appraisal for the item is so you can see if the value of the item appraised went up/down/stayed flat from 2003 to now.

Miami Mike wrote:
... I was watching Antiques Roadshow and they were showing guitars from 2003. For each item, they showed the evaluated price in 2003 and updated price for 2018. The majority of items went down in value significantly.

I agree that the majority did did go down, with two of the exceptions being a 1937 Martin and an early Gibson Mandolin that both increased quite a bit (sorry I forget what episodes). My guess for the big decrease in collector values is based on all the money that was lost in the early 2000's stock bubble burst/911 war and then the 2008 real-estate-driven recession. My guess is that many collectors lost a lot of the money that was keeping up the collector values for all those early 1900s dolls, 1920s costume jewelry, weird pottery, etc. that were de-valued. Also, it is good to know I have a brother geek git-player in you who likes that show too!!!

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:57 pm
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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:06 pm
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Ahh... that makes more sense.
Yes, I would tend to agree to a point.
Extremely rare, one-off, or pre-CBS era I think are probably holding their value pretty well.
But yes, like the growth and death of the custom chopper, Bro-Dozer, and McMansion, the recession absolutely hammered the "Joe Average" vintage market... meaning the market where a guitar was worth $2000+ simply because it was 30 years old, regardless of production numbers and with medium regard to condition.
IIRC, it was Japanese "investors" (and Paul Allen) that were driving the vintage market in the mid 90s, but their market was generally pre-1960, later models only with provenance.

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:42 pm
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You made a good point about the vintage market being driven by major game players, and I think the communication and information gathering enhanced this practice over the years. Even travel and word of mouth has a small part in this. I know Randy Bachman used to hit garage sales when he traveled with the band and he has one of the biggest and best collections known.

There is a bit of mystique with Japanese collectors, Of course, it is well known that the Japanese, as in other countries, are reclaiming goods that were made in their country but popular overseas.

On the other hand they also collect audiophile gear including speakers whether working or not. They may be all of one brand or similar products of many brands. They may be all American, all Japanese, or other. Much of it becomes eye candy to sit on a shelf for bragging rights. I’m sure there will be some wall hung guitars like that too.

Of course, it goes without saying, normal collecting as we have is also prevalent.

FSB

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Post subject: Re: Is the Vintage Market drying up?
Posted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:57 am
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01GT eibach wrote:
I think most of you are misunderstanding -- Antiques Roadshow were showing re-runs from 2003 except at the end they would add what the 2018 appraisal for the item is so you can see if the value of the item appraised went up/down/stayed flat from 2003 to now.

Miami Mike wrote:
... I was watching Antiques Roadshow and they were showing guitars from 2003. For each item, they showed the evaluated price in 2003 and updated price for 2018. The majority of items went down in value significantly.

I agree that the majority did did go down, with two of the exceptions being a 1937 Martin and an early Gibson Mandolin that both increased quite a bit (sorry I forget what episodes). My guess for the big decrease in collector values is based on all the money that was lost in the early 2000's stock bubble burst/911 war and then the 2008 real-estate-driven recession. My guess is that many collectors lost a lot of the money that was keeping up the collector values for all those early 1900s dolls, 1920s costume jewelry, weird pottery, etc. that were de-valued. Also, it is good to know I have a brother geek git-player in you who likes that show too!!!



:wink:

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