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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:53 am
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I'm waiting to see the 8:00 AM advisory.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:53 am
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I imagine we may possibly be missing the presence of some of our brethren today and possibly tomorrow and the next day. Evacuation orders being given for some areas. Here's hoping people get an early start and don't wait too long. I'm sure the roads clogging up will be a hazard.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:04 am
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With the stall out to 1 mph overnight, the chances of a Florida landfall diminished to 6% from about 20%.


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:09 am
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South Carolina is being evacuated.
Well, not the whole state of course.
Saw it this morning.
Effective noon today.
If it were me I wouldn't be waiting until noon.
I'd get an early start.
Clogged highways will be a hazard as well as a lack of accommodations for the evacuees.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:32 am
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Contraflow is a huge help, but adds some dangers when all access points aren't actively managed.

I've only evac'd once (Harvey2017) I was the "midnight rider" then. I did race TS Alberta in 94 on Interstate 75 going from Clearwater Fl. to Anniston Al. I was really lucky then as I made it through Macon Ga driving through about 3 feet of water on the interstate. Macon was eventually cut off completely and 75 was closed to all traffic.
I had to report to BNOC (basic non-commissioned officers course)on the 5th and spent the night of the 4th in a local motel.

Ironically: This school is where I learned to plot weather & other airborne hazards.


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:23 am
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sfceric64 wrote:
Contraflow is a huge help, but adds some dangers when all access points aren't actively managed.

I've only evac'd once (Harvey2017) I was the "midnight rider" then. I did race TS Alberta in 94 on Interstate 75 going from Clearwater Fl. to Anniston Al. I was really lucky then as I made it through Macon Ga driving through about 3 feet of water on the interstate. Macon was eventually cut off completely and 75 was closed to all traffic.
I had to report to BNOC (basic non-commissioned officers course)on the 5th and spent the night of the 4th in a local motel.

Ironically: This school is where I learned to plot weather & other airborne hazards.

That was good timing. :wink:

Zone A (mobile, sub standard, and low homes) and zone B including islands and inlet, both of Palm Beach county, are under mandatory evacuation.

Speaking of evacuation . . . has anyone here received mandatory evacuation orders and/or have you decided to evacuate?

Stay safe.

FSB

A thought came to mind. Many years ago the TV station I was working at had a flood for the whole basement floor (just over our shoes). The basement was the location of all control rooms, rack equipment, and tape playback, etc. We kept that station going by lifting major audio and video gear and whatnot out of water flowing in. Fortunately, we had a large carpentry shop to provide what we needed. The whole operation was risky, hairy, and successful.

I am curious to know, being that standing in water and electricity doesn't mix, why we don’t hear of electrocutions in these storms. Live power lines whipping about in storms are no stranger here, and you can’t always be grounded as prevention dictates. I’m sure power is shut off when possible; but, that doesn’t account for other times when it isn’t. Maybe, it just doesn’t happen or there’s a lot of luck floating out there.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:20 am
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I think it because of a lack of proximity.
I read something about that a long, long time ago when I was a young man.
If memory serves, water related electrocutions are rare because of distance/resistance.
I think the way it works is, if there is enough salt or other solubles that contribute to making water conductive then the likelihood that the electricity will simply short-circuit and trip a breaker is greater than that of passing through a person.
It's due to the fact that there is about a half an inch between hot, neutral and ground on the duplex outlet, cord, whatever, whereas you are several feet away creating a greater resistive path.
That's not to say you are safe wading through a flooded house with the power on.
Just that circumstances have to be right for an electrocution to take place.

That's from memory though and from many years ago at that.
I could be foggy on it.
Also, common thinking could have changed on the subject in that time.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:42 am
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I heard about this a long time ago and never knew if it was really true, so I looked it up. If your trapped in a car with water and downed electric wires around you should:
"Know how to exit the vehicle safely. You should only attempt to leave your vehicle if it is on fire. It’s important that you don’t touch the car and the ground at the same time. To exit as safely as possible, you should jump from the car, keeping your feet together, and hop away from the scene."
I guess keeping your feet together prevents the electricity from entering one foot and exiting the other.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:17 pm
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Seems plausible to me, Matt. I get more shocks from static electricity in the family room. :lol:
FSB

Side note:
Back when B/W video cameras had large image orthicon tubes as opposed to tiny CCD and CMOS
http://www.rfcafe.com/references/popula ... opular.htm I used to get my weekly dosage of shock treatment. Those tubes could hold a charge even when not engaged. :shock:That’ll get your heart pumpin’. I have one at home with some hours left on it from my retired camera of the 60s.

But, I digress. Glenn:

Curious to know where and how high did you decide to put your generator?

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:36 pm
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Yes Mark, that is absolutely correct and it is still the recommended procedure.
Working in the petrochemical industry we are often reminded during safety meetings of how to come down off a steel structure in the event of lightning. We are told to stop at the last stair or ladder rung and jump that last step to the ground. It is also the one time when they won't chastise you if you choose not to hold the handrail while descending the stairs. They would prefer you did but they will understand if you choose not to. My feeling is, what ever gets me down the fastest is the method I will use. I don't think it is likely that I would become electrocuted if lightning did strike the structure since the structure is grounded/bonded by law but I do think the steel might get pretty hot as billions of volts pass through it. I don't think I want to be anywhere near that.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:07 pm
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Marky Forrest wrote:
I heard about this a long time ago and never knew if it was really true, so I looked it up. If your trapped in a car with water and downed electric wires around you should:
"Know how to exit the vehicle safely. You should only attempt to leave your vehicle if it is on fire. It’s important that you don’t touch the car and the ground at the same time. To exit as safely as possible, you should jump from the car, keeping your feet together, and hop away from the scene."
I guess keeping your feet together prevents the electricity from entering one foot and exiting the other.

Marky:
That’s typical car knowledge around here in flood territory.

Keeping the feet together, less known, makes sense considering electricians that practice safety, often keep a left hand in their pocket (old school) because the right hand will go to ground, but the left will complete a circuit to the right hand and through the heart. Perhaps, the two feet and legs together are related. But, seeing football players being close called for the feet in or out of bounds, I don’t know how sound that process would be, Marky. With the choices, it’s better than nothing. :wink:
In my 20s I was lighting a studio and moving a 2kW plugged in light in my right hand and left hand on the raceway to catch myself from falling from a ladder when Zap! my hands had a brief moment of them seemingly stuck momentarily to both the light and the raceway. I’ve heard of that, but couldn't believe it when it happened. It was so immediate recall was difficult. Must have been a short. I had black spots the size of pin heads burnt into my right hand fingertips for a reminder. I shudder to think what would have happened were the right and left hands swapped in position. Basically, It’s the current and duration, not volts, watts, or amps that are lethal. As I alluded to earlier, luck is a great gift when needed.

Throwing much needed luck down south for those dealing with Dorian.

FSB

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:56 pm
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Just heard from a friend down there :

"If you have family or friends in Florida, you can relax a bit.

IF IF IF the western side of the hurricane nicks us, it won’t be a big deal at all. I’m monitoring real time winds for Freeport (just southwest of the eye), and their winds haven’t been over 42 mph all morning. The west side of the storm is weak and getting weaker.

Latest sat images show the eye is getting ragged, more sign of weakening. It has been sitting and stirring the ocean long enough to pull up colder water. It’s cutting off its own fuel supply.

Surf is huge here, and there will be some dune breaches possible. But not a big overwash event that threatens structures away from the oceanfront. They’ll make a big deal about “beach erosion” so that the cartel that does “renourishment” can rake in another few billion$$. It’s just the ocean rearranging the furniture....

PS I just took the Boxster out because it needed to be run, I stopped in a liquor store in Melbourne Beach. Wife wanted insurance vodka.

I’ve lived around here since 73, never more than 900 feet from the ocean. We have a hotel reservation inland about 8 miles, but it’s not going to get used unless something changes drastically tonight or in the morning.

Flooding and coastal flooding could be an issue elsewhere, but east Florida isn’t going to get hit with a buzzsaw like Abacos."

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:53 pm
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Miami Mike wrote:
. . .
The west side of the storm is weak and getting weaker. . .

They’ll make a big deal about “beach
erosion” so that the cartel that does “renourishment” can rake in another few billion$$. It’s just the ocean rearranging the furniture . . .

PS I just took the Boxster out because it needed to be run, I stopped in a liquor store in Melbourne Beach. Wife wanted insurance vodka . . .
That update of yours. Mike, looks to be great news. Any lessening of the hurricane is welcomed. I’m sure that, just based on a storm, this one will create issues that will keep Floridians busy and concerned for some time. Your report might be a great favour to the upper east coast too.

I totally get how these events bring out those looking for support in a cause that may or may not warrant it.

Science and modeling for example is a necessary evil, but in the wrong hands it gets distorted. I just saw a report where in BC apologies were made by those in the know that their modeling predictions were way off track in preparation to deal with this year’s forest fires, and a new look at things is admittedly in order to prepare for next year. Learning from mistakes is a good thing. Admitting mistakes is even better and constructive.

Differences in Dorian’s modeling data proved to be less than perfect if not late when comparing data once more. So far, I’ve basically heard ‘we’re now closer’ instead of ‘we were not close now or before and we should reconsider the alternatives’. No one would suggest it is easy or even possible to be 100% accurate, and with every lesson technology changes, usually for the better; but, for whatever reason there are those who claim science is sound and without question? These examples make me question not if the climate change data reports anomalies in our climate (I’m convinced it does); but, I do question the science and data collection based on errors, ignorance, and undiscovered information of the past and present. Look at the first three letters in funding. Interesting.

Throughout history the one with the ball sets the rules. Is Pluto a planet or a moon, and what’s with the second black hole? Is a sunny day changing to rain and then to snow a climate change? What if the next day doesn’t mirror the current one? What if regions swap characteristics? Is beach erosion ‘just the ocean rearranging the furniture’? (I believe it is. It depends on the validity of the science).

My experience taught me how dependable science is, my chemistry schooling was introduced to new elements midstream and it changed science while I questioned a less than happy chem teacher. Is that dependable? Somewhat; however, evolving might be more correct. I can only say that research can be flawed, and the support that follows it carries and promotes the theme. Timing before and after will play a part. Are 200 years sufficient for data? What about 4.5 billion years (said by scientists to be earth’s age) minus a few centuries of documented climate science? Most scientists, some whom I’ve met, are susceptible to a loss of their livelihood (few are independent), chance of error (even with Stephen Hawkins) historically is pretty astronomical. How many times can we hear the science is there so it must be right? That’s not to say science is wrong. I prefer to say it is incomplete, and that leaves it open for question except when the door is shut. To not question or review the basic science lacks credibility. We can, of course, go with the best we have. Let’s hope it is the best, and that Brownie points are set aside. :wink:
Man did land on the moon didn’t they? Cat 5 hit Florida in 1935, did it not?

Whoo boy!?
PBM-5 Mariner and
Flight19 Grumman TBM Avengers are out there somewhere.
Could be a climate change thingy.
Nope. Don’t think so . . . but, maybe.

Golly, Mike. We had earthquake insurance and no vodka. We should have traded it for hurrIcane insurance.
Your Mrs. is a smart lady. :D
Stay safe.

FSB

Kudos to the weather forecasters who help to make these events more manageable. A lot will be learned and hopefully gleaned from Dorian to give us more precise tracking and improved solutions. It has been pretty good though, all things considered. IMHO.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:20 am
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FSB, Big ol' can of worms...
Real time data is impossible to obtain across the spectrum of raw data inputs, some modeling is based on simpler technology than others. Margin of error per input, could be significant. Take for instance Lat/Long, the weather channel reports use a single position after the decimal(27.1N) when raw data may be 27.10909 or 5 places. The difference in reality is about 6 miles margin of error from .1 to .2..
I respect the fact and don't expect more accurate reporting based on the hazards it would require to acquire real time pinpoint accuracy w/ regards to all the many data inputs required to present reasonably accurate reporting information.

As to the water electrocution conversation, isn't water floating above ground? Therefor a higher reference to ground.
If your swimming, keep swimming dont touch anything that might be grounded.

Back to the storm, whew a 45 degree change overnight to a more northward path and huge loss of power. Still moving to slow for most folks. Current models have agreed 94% over the next 150 miles or so(Florida escapes land falling). One model has it moving ENE. Actual track to be determined only in hindsight.
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In this image, the XTRP has not been updated to reflect the movement heading of 325 degrees.


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:48 am
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Hey there, sfceric64:
Apologies for throwing worms, and worms they may be. I certainly don’t profess expertise in any of that. It is what it is, and that’s my point.

First let me say your posts are appreciated.

It’s not the science that I find trouble with. We all know science has enhanced our lives, mind you it has all but destroyed it in other ways.

Perhaps, that’s the simplest analogy of my blurb. I believe that a closer look at cause and effect is needed more often than not. If you could drum up an old copy from Scientific American you’d find a fantastic article using complicated math that proves economics is in the long run, subject to failure 100% of the time, yet not only do economists swear by the practice, but so do those who trust the economists. Another case where what you don’t know you don’t know. If you do know, it might not be in your interest to share it. It may be the best you have for a purpose. Reminds me that the world was flat until a new discovery. Even then, there were those that followed the world is flat culture. :wink:

August 29/19 here in Manitoba we recently had provincial warnings for 25mph winds with gusts of 37 mph and Great Lake (Lake Manitoba) and Lake Winnipeg predictions for a rise of 5 feet. We’ve had worse in cottage country.

Compare that with current winds of Melbourne, Florida (100 miles from the center of Dorian) . . . also 25 mph with 35 mph gusts. The differences include the Atlantic Ocean, storm surge, amount of rain, and a hurricane that will bring more of everything as winds increase. Add population, structures, and duration.

For now it may appear manageable like it is here, based on statistics; but, the worst is yet to come for the east coast. Fortunately, the worse has now been downgraded with a category 2 level at this time. Let’s hope it drops again, and that everyone can take a breath of relief.

Thoughts go out to the Bahamas. Tragic. The Royal Bahamas Defence Force will be active. I’ll be interested to see if and when the Brits show up to aid this Commonwealth country.

Best,
FSB

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