It is currently Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:45 am

All times are UTC - 7 hours



Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 92 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next
Author Message
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:46 pm
Offline
Professional Musician
Professional Musician

Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:56 am
Posts: 1677
Location: Coastal Bend, Tx.
The storm turned into a beast! It has one more hurdle imo, the abaco canyon. Its about a 10k foot climb from deep water and will likely fatten and warble, Dorians path is still TBD.
Stay safe and dont let your guard down just yet....


Top
Profile
Fender Play Winter Sale 2020
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:18 pm
Offline
Rock Star
Rock Star
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:50 pm
Posts: 7998
Location: ʎɹʇunoɔ ǝsoɹ pןıʍ
One thing that has never been fully answered to my satisfaction with regard to hurricanes off the eastern USA coastline is ... don't these system almost always pass either through or right next to the Virgin Islands, Jamaica/Cuba, etc. I always hear about how they lose steam as they hit the mainland, dropping a whole category and sometimes two. I seems to me Dorian must be a category 5 as it passes those islands. They're talking about 150mph winds. How do those places survive? They must still get the full brunt of many storms that miss USA because they turned back out to sea.

Or am I missing something?

_________________
Image
Just think of how awesome a guitar player you could have been by now if you had only spent the last 10 years practicing instead of obsessing over pickups and roasted maple necks.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:43 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:48 am
Posts: 26415
Location: Tombstone Territory
It's those HAARP boys up in Alaska -- they just steer the things wherever they want.

:lol:
Arjay

_________________
"Here's why reliability is job one: A great sounding amp that breaks down goes from being a favorite piece of gear to a useless piece of crap in less time than it takes to read this sentence." -- BRUCE ZINKY


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:27 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:45 am
Posts: 20994
Location: On the loo, regretting that gas station burrito.
Mr. Nylon wrote:
In my little part of the world, we are out of the NHC's warnings forecast cone. That could change, but it seems highly unlikely that will happen. The trend of the storm's movement, is more to the east away from the southeast coast of Florida. I'm hoping this predicted trend continues for our area, and the rest of the eastern seaboard. The Bermuda high has weakened, allowing the storm to turn from the coast, and track more to the north. That was at least the situation at the 11:00 AM EST advisory.


Good news. 8)

_________________
Image


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:26 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:38 am
Posts: 12975
Location: Canada
BMW-KTM wrote:
One thing that has never been fully answered to my satisfaction with regard to hurricanes off the eastern USA coastline is ... don't these system almost always pass either through or right next to the Virgin Islands, Jamaica/Cuba, etc. I always hear about how they lose steam as they hit the mainland, dropping a whole category and sometimes two. I seems to me Dorian must be a category 5 as it passes those islands. They're talking about 150mph winds. How do those places survive? They must still get the full brunt of many storms that miss USA because they turned back out to sea.

Or am I missing something?
Great question, Matt. Here’s part of the answer.

Basically, Cuba is a world leader in hurricane preparedness which they have been known to share world wide including in the Caribbean. Several reasons are considered such as not depending on the past support of the old Soviet Union, and Cuba’s mostly refined prevention program as including a culture after a devastating loss of more than a thousand lives in 1963’s Hurricane Flora. As a result of their preparedness, deaths are reported to be less likely to occur 15 times less than in America.

This is wordy, but skip to Introductions if you’d prefer. More is available on YouTube but it gets political at times.
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss3/art31/

Factoid: Hurricane Harvey 2017 dumped enough water into Houston, Texas that it would fill the Houston Astrodome 85,000 times ! :shock:
FSB

_________________
Hello, big guitar. Meet my little fingers.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:20 am
Offline
Professional Musician
Professional Musician

Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:56 am
Posts: 1677
Location: Coastal Bend, Tx.
Upgraded to Cat 5. Moved 210 miles and deviated by less than 1 degree to the north. At an average speed 8.78 mph it has about 5 hours before reaching the Abico Canyon wall, its still in 16k feet of water. Then it has about 3 hours more to sea level...
Speaking here about the actual core center..also
The link on P549 of "what are you doing" thread is an active link that will automatically update w/ each NHC/NOAA update.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:47 am
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:38 am
Posts: 12975
Location: Canada
Just tuned in to see Cat 5, sfceric64. Present wind speed of 185 mph is one thing; but, gusts of 240 mph has pushed the needle off the measurement meter in many cases. That’s crazy.

It should be noted that Cat 5 has struck Florida in the past, and predictions have been compared to Andrew, but the eye and impact of Dorian has it’s own personality, predicted to be worse than Andrew. Dorian is similar in intensity to Hurricane Three of 1935 aka Labor Day Hurricane, also a Cat 5, the first on land recorded. Strange that it is 84 years almost to the day. That means there are people that have or will experience both; although, in 1935 the path traveled the west coast of Florida instead of the east coast. That‘s a tough argument for and against climate change.

Fortunately, Puerto Rico missed the full blunt, still having a rough storm, but the Bahamas is getting nailed, and the coast of Florida has our attention (presently 205 miles east from West Palm Beach), and we share hope for the best under these difficult circumstances.

It looks like this increase in activity and northern direction will move Dorian further up the east coast adding more destruction along it’s path.

If there is a positive with the Cat 5, hard to say, it may be that the storm will pass by more quickly than earlier announced. That would help with rainfall and wind in some way; but, for now 8 mph is the hurricane’s speed.

I can’t imagine how this event would turnout without early warning and updates. That is something to be thankful for.

Your safety and survival is another thing that will be welcomed. Big time! Preparedness includes the little things. As with any job a lot of the big things will be taken care of. Most of all, take care of yourself with food, water, extra pairs of eye glasses if needed, hats, socks, extra clothing (layering is helpful even if temporary in the heat. Works in the Sahara), and an escape and:or evacuation plan. It might be a good time to feed that pet too.

Some are not prepared for fire. It may be unlikely, but fires happen in disasters even if it comes from a neighbour. Not much you can do unless manageable; but, it is a good reason to evacuate. On the other hand, water can be problematic. Try to keep it from skin contact if it’s not yours.

You probably have this info already and experience will be your guide. Friends and family could choose a gathering place to meet should you get separated. Pocket change will work in machines that don’t take bills or cards. An all in one tool could be handy, so I’ll leave you with that. I know many have survival boxes with these sort of things and important documents in mind. Give yourself a pat on the back. Great idea.

Best
FSB

_________________
Hello, big guitar. Meet my little fingers.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:42 pm
Offline
Professional Musician
Professional Musician

Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:56 am
Posts: 1677
Location: Coastal Bend, Tx.
Currently it is a little over halfway through the Abico Canyon depth change.
It added 50% to the HFW radius to 90 miles from 60.
It increased intensity to 185mph wind speed and 910mb of pressure. May get a little stronger still!!
Forward speed slowed slightly to about 7mph.
It is still nearly exactly on a 280 degree(maybe slightly more to the north) track from this mornings 8am update.
It will be in shallow water(<100ft) or over land for the next 24-30 hrs which is de-stabilizing.
When it re-enters a more stable area over deeper water, it will/may change course.
It is such a strong storm that it may not change course easily.

FSB, the rotational intensity(cat5) has little to do with the lateral speed, if anything it is resistance/friction if that makes sense. Think of the eye as a giant spring as it travels over land/shallower water the bottom half of the spring compresses. Sometimes this causes eye wall replacement to occur but it always causes the air to compress and vent/exhaust out the top of the spring. I call it squatting, I'm sure there's a better term.

Here is my screen shot, notice the red line through the eye. That is the "Saturday 8amEST directional track @280 degrees". It hasn't really budged from that in 32 hours.
Image


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:41 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:16 pm
Posts: 18659
Location: In this country town, where the laughter sounds...
The 5:00 PM EST advisory shows it at 185 mph sustained wind, moving at 5 mph forward speed. 270 Degrees West. Central pressure is 910 mb. 175 Miles East of West Palm Beach, FL. With the storm moving this slow, it is more apt to make its turn to the NNW, possibly at or around 2:00 PM EST, Monday. Time will tell on that one too.
I have to tell ya', this one is an up in the air, not sure what it's going to do. The outer bands have starting to work through this area for a few hours now. Sporadic at best, but are picking up a bit as it gets closer to 7:00 PM EST. This area should get some strong sustained Tropical Storm winds, with some possible Hurricane strength gusts. on or about Monday, into Tuesday. Image

_________________
"Electric Lady"
Image


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:46 pm
Offline
Rock Star
Rock Star
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:50 pm
Posts: 7998
Location: ʎɹʇunoɔ ǝsoɹ pןıʍ
Looks like Nassau is right in the thick of it.

_________________
Image
Just think of how awesome a guitar player you could have been by now if you had only spent the last 10 years practicing instead of obsessing over pickups and roasted maple necks.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:07 pm
Offline
Professional Musician
Professional Musician

Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:56 am
Posts: 1677
Location: Coastal Bend, Tx.
Glenn, hopefully it starts turning north closer to 8-10 am. Anymore than that increases the chance of a Florida landfall. If the center gets west of the tip of Grand Bahama(west end airport) it will put the edge of HFW w/in 20 miles of WP Beach.

BMW, Nassau is about 120 miles from the center right now. So they are getting TSFW(extending out 140 miles) probably w/ gusts reaching nearly 50-60 mph. HFW only extending 45 miles from center.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:23 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2008 10:38 am
Posts: 12975
Location: Canada
Thanks, for the detailed explanation, sfceric64. You did a great job explaining how that multi dimensional storm works. I know others will appreciate it too

Glenn, great update. A non typical day, huh?

I remember looking out of a doorway in the path of a tornado hoping and wondering if it would turn. Thankfully, I wouldn’t be writing this if it hadn’t. I was in awe of it’s power, the lightning that appeared as a backlight momentarily revealing the twister in the dark, and there was fear and respect at the same time. There was no where to run to, but we hoped for the best, and were prepared with first responders communicating.

Keeping strong for women, children, and some men can be a challenge at times, and I have to tell you there’s always apprehension. That anxiety can be a favourable trait when it is directed to get the job done. IMHO, I’m kinda suspect of dudes that claim no fear. They either don’t have the facts or don’t grasp them. One doesn’t have to shake to the bones, but a twitch or two would be human.

I’ve faced dangers with things like choppy waves high above me crashing over a wooden trawler like boat in a fierce storm not far from Alaska. From shore, log booms, and those broken in towing we had delinquent huge logs above us which had to be avoided throughout the pitch black evening. The windows were pretty much useless with torrential rain and waves slapping them, The solution. was a sealed dual pane storm window, the size of a very large pizza. A motor in the center spun the outer pane exceedingly fast like a lazy Susan, throwing off the water so we could see.better. How fast was that spin? Touch it and lose your finger or part of it, Two search lights and numerous crew members kept pointing the logs out as they appeared in front and from above. One log striking could cripple or sink our boat or destroy the wheelhouse. I was on the wheel. Was I scared? I didn't have time to think of it; but, when it was over, I realized how scared I was. My responsibility kicked in at the wheel, and that saved me from the fear. Once I experienced the danger, I became humble and fearful, but ready for the challenge.

All of you in the path of Dorian have my respect, and I know one can’t experience from an armchair what you have or are about to have . W.C. Fields’ epitaph pretty much says it, “All things considered, I’d rather be in Philly.”

FSB

_________________
Hello, big guitar. Meet my little fingers.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:08 pm
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:13 pm
Posts: 19025
Location: Illinois, USA
Great thread Gary. Cool and informative posts Lounge Lizards. 8)

_________________
you can save the world with your guitar one love song at a time it's just better, more fun, easier with a fender solid body electric guitar or electric bass guitar.


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:31 pm
Offline
Professional Musician
Professional Musician

Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:56 am
Posts: 1677
Location: Coastal Bend, Tx.
Last post before bed, another screen shot hopefully helping to understand all the models the weather channel shows. The Continental Shelf & The Gulf Stream help to de-stabilize and channel storms. Just look at the Gulf Stream and imagine all those model runs.
In the screen shot, the red circle is the 45 mile radius of HFW, the longer red line running East to West is pegged to the sea floor(for ease of use as a visual reference) and the southern end of the short vertical red line represents the distance from the tail of the storm clearing the Continental Shelf and hopefully the turning point of the storm. The line also represents an approximate initial 45 degree turn and is a correction in terms of heading degrees from the center of the storm @270 as of the last report.
Image


Top
Profile
Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:43 am
Offline
Rock Icon
Rock Icon
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:16 pm
Posts: 18659
Location: In this country town, where the laughter sounds...
More frequent feeder bands moving in, with heavier winds, and rains, as expected. Dorian is 102 miles from WPB, 165 mph sustained winds, moving 270 degrees W, at a whooping one mph. It has taken a slight jog to the N., at 26.7 N latitude at this time. I'm at 26.3 N. At this point any move to the N is fine with me. Image

_________________
"Electric Lady"
Image


Top
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 92 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

All times are UTC - 7 hours

Fender Play Winter Sale 2020

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: