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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:21 pm
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Mr. Nylon wrote:
It unfortunately is going to be a posable reactivation of this thread, with Hurricane Nate closing in on the Gulf Coast of the U.S. Hang in there folks. Here's hoping that everyone up there weathers the storm out safely. Yawl keep your heads down! No smoken' & joken' about it. If they advise you to evacuate, and you can, GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE!Image
+1 on that Mr.Nylon.

* The authorities aren’t going to be right all the time. At times, they only have to be right once!

* Some are concerned about losing belongings. Losing one’s life will not get much use out of belongings.

* Most deaths and injuries happen after the storm or because of it. Evacuate when necessary and regroup refreshed.

* Give first responders a hand by not creating problems that could be alleviated.

Understandably, each person is the architect of their own fortune. Hopefully, you won’t build it on shakey ground and find your life in rubble.

Think smart and be safe.

FSB

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:39 pm
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Thinking of you. Hope all is well.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:54 am
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Hey there, Lizards.

Thought this might, unfortunately, be the time to reactivate this thread now that the peak hurricane season is showing it’s ugly face with Dorian.

First let me wish the best and safe keeping for all those who are or will be affected. There is a time to stay and a time to leave, I hope sound judgment will be your guide. Perhaps, your observations and experience will be of help to others here, and they certainly will be of interest, and definitely of concern.

I just saw a report from a University of Miami hurricane expert, when asked, who believes that the frequency and potency of these hurricanes have little or no change or direct impact from climate change

What he did say, briefly, is that, more or less, the rise of the ocean related to climate change has altered the hurricanes’ path where high and low areas may exchange their former chances of receiving these tropical cyclones.

Take care y’all.

FSB

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:07 pm
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Fender Strat Brat wrote:
Hey there, Lizards.

Thought this might, unfortunately, be the time to reactivate this thread now that the peak hurricane season is showing it’s ugly face with Dorian.

First let me wish the best and safe keeping for all those who are or will be affected. There is a time to stay and a time to leave, I hope sound judgment will be your guide. Perhaps, your observations and experience will be of help to others here, and they certainly will be of interest, and definitely of concern.

I just saw a report from a University of Miami hurricane expert, when asked, who believes that the frequency and potency of these hurricanes have little or no change or direct impact from climate change

What he did say, briefly, is that, more or less, the rise of the ocean related to climate change has altered the hurricanes’ path where high and low areas may exchange their former chances of receiving these tropical cyclones.

Take care y’all.

FSB

Appreciate the concern, FSB. Right now I'm keeping an eye on it, but the concern should lie in Florida.


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:41 pm
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have to give my pops a call and see how he is doing. for Irma he "sheltered" in the bathroom of his trailer. for whatever reason his was one of the few places not impacted. his neighbor lost a roof and a guy 1000' away lost most of his house.


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:14 pm
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Missed this back when, looking w/ my good eye during the season nearly everyday.
The spaghetti models are still a little all over the place, but the primary US/EU models say Florida for about 85% probability.
Maybe she'll find a hole to the great northeast to open ocean. Not likely but maybe. Late tomorrow will tell for sure.
Stay safe Floridians!!


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:20 pm
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Good to hear from you on this, vinyl. My old home, where they have the highest and lowest tides in Nova Scotia and in the world, was on standby for tropical storm Erin which might have given Halifax a hurricane shakeup. All along the east coast all kinds of shipping, from fishing to freighters to cruise ships, personal boats, and more, need special consideration in and out of port. Fortunately, it was downgraded for yesterday and, although troublesome, it paled compared to Dorian.
avenger79 wrote:
have to give my pops a call and see how he is doing. for Irma he "sheltered" in the bathroom of his trailer. for whatever reason his was one of the few places not impacted. his neighbor lost a roof and a guy 1000' away lost most of his house.
Glad your dad stayed safe for Irma, avenger79, and seeing the misfortune of his neighbours adds to you dad’s luck, if one can call it that.

Aside from having worked at an RV dealership, and owning one at the age of 23, I can say it’s not a place I want to be in that predicaments. The
bathroom was likely a better choice though. Some years back my wife’s cousin almost got killed in Alberta where her totalled trailer crushed and almost killed her in a storm. It wasn’t just the glass, metal, and furnishings that did damage. She got close to a hundred stitches and staples added to the trailer staples and it’s many screws thrown at her beside their flipped pickup truck. A small tornado from lakeside was the culprit.

Hope your dad always has an easy time of it in his comfort zone whether (no pun intended) he’s in a storm or not. :wink:
FSB

How’s this for crazy? I’ve felt safer on the Atlantic during a hurricane than I’ve felt during some nasty storms here on terra firma as I checked the water halfway up the doors of my Buick. :roll:

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:57 pm
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Image Howdy Kids! It kinda' looks like I may be in the immediate vicinity for this one, depending on what the steering currents do with this storm. It may be a tough one. I'm not going to put up any panels unless I see it's going to be more of a direct hit to the area. Late Sat., will probably tell the tale. A few of the computer runs take it a bit north of me.
To everyone else in the cone of this one, hang in there, and STAY SAFE!!! This one may strike anywhere. Image

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:01 pm
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Are you north or south of St Lucy?
My early prediction is Sebastion inlet...hurricane force winds are only 30 miles currently. The next 24hrs are over slightly deeper and warmer waters. Growth is harder to predict than intensity&directional speed.

We used to say smoke em if ya got em, they might be wet later.
Or in your case, better to hang em' and not need em' then need em' and not be able to hang em'
Save the last couple so ya still have that great view!


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:39 pm
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sfceric64 wrote:
Are you north or south of St Lucy?
My early prediction is Sebastion inlet...hurricane force winds are only 30 miles currently. The next 24hrs are over slightly deeper and warmer waters. Growth is harder to predict than intensity&directional speed.

We used to say smoke em if ya got em, they might be wet later.
Or in your case, better to hang em' and not need em' then need em' and not be able to hang em'
Save the last couple so ya still have that great view!


I'm down in south Palm Beach County, south of Port St. Lucy. If it hits up around Vero Beach, or north of it, I'd be doing pretty good.

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:53 pm
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Mr. Nylon wrote:
sfceric64 wrote:
Are you north or south of St Lucy?
My early prediction is Sebastion inlet...hurricane force winds are only 30 miles currently. The next 24hrs are over slightly deeper and warmer waters. Growth is harder to predict than intensity&directional speed.

We used to say smoke em if ya got em, they might be wet later.
Or in your case, better to hang em' and not need em' then need em' and not be able to hang em'
Save the last couple so ya still have that great view!


I'm down in south Palm Beach County, south of Port St. Lucy. If it hits up around Vero Beach, or north of it, I'd be doing pretty good.
Every storm is unique. No two are alike, This one doesn’t appear to be too friendly. I hope you won’t get hammered, Glenn, and that your smooth sailing will get back to you and yours sooner than later. Stock up on Jello my friend.

TTYL
FSB

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:57 pm
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Quote:
I'm down in south Palm Beach County
You may be good, they don't expect a severe deviation for about 12-14hrs. The hurricane force winds have expanded to 50 miles wide from 30 over the last 6 hrs.
Thats a much larger impact area.
Stock up and stay safe!


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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:54 am
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According to the American satellite data model, expected to hit mid to southern Florida, once it makes landfall, category 4 Dorian is predicted to then head across Florida to the west and to the north where, as it leaves the east coast, it is predicted to drop to a category 1.

The European model has no east to west movement across Florida. That prediction follows the coastline north which, can not only keep the intensity of a category 4, but it has the ability to increase it after it reaches Florida. The storm’s slow movement only makes things worse.

Wind is definitely a concern, but there are other threats that should not be ignored. Water is responsible for 90% of the fatalities in these storms. It is not always clear what a category hurricane is. Here is one example:



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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:13 am
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We're up in Maine where it's nice and sunny with cool oceans breezes but I got an update
from ZZ_Doc:

"We have made only minor adjustments to the track and intensity up until landfall early Tuesday morning near Port St. Lucie, Florida. After landfall, we have adjusted the track a little to the east. This takes the center of Dorian just west of Orlando early Wednesday morning and very near Jacksonville early Thursday morning. As Dorian passes Jacksonville, we think that it will be close enough to the coast that it should remain a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph to 45 mph. Dorian is now predicted to move offshore north of Savannah, Georgia by noon Thursday. Once offshore, Dorian may begin to strengthen as it moves along the coast Thursday night and Friday. In addition, its wind field may expand significantly late next week as it tracks along the East U.S. Coast. Dorian is predicted to impact the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida as a strong Category 4 hurricane with max sustained wind between 140 mph and 145 mph. On our Hurricane Severity Index, Dorian is predicted to have a total HSI of 22 points, 5 of which for its size and 17 for its intensity. Since the question of how Dorian compares to Category 5 Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Andrew had an HSI at landfall of 31 points, with 8 size points and 23 intensity points. Therefore, Dorian is predicted to be a little smaller and weaker than Andrew. Dorian's slow movement up the Florida Peninsula is likely to result in some very heavy rainfall along its track. "

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Post subject: Re: Hurricane Lizards Check In, Please
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:33 am
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My prayers go out to all those in Dorian's path. Stay safe my friends.

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